Link blog: intrade, business, betting, prediction

The Fall Of Intrade And The Business Of Betting On Real Life
“There’s always been a thin line between investing and gambling, and one firm turned the concept into a multimillion-dollar industry until the government shut it down. As number crunchers like Nate Silver become cultural touchstones, how does Intrade’s fate predict the future of how we process the world?”
(tags: prediction gambling intrade law business betting markets elections)

1 Comment on "Link blog: intrade, business, betting, prediction"

  1. I think the main thing that makes this story even a story is that gambling is illegal in the US. There’s a throwaway comment, just illustrating a point by telling the reader something they already know: Putting $100 on the Broncos is illegal. What? Having a flutter on your sports team is illegal? No wonder Intrade ended up all kinds of dodgy, given that background.

    The other thing I noticed is anecdotes about successfully betting against politicians who say something virulently homophobic, even if otherwise the trends are that they should do well. That’s heartening to me if it’s really a general thing: open homophobia is a massive, trend-bucking vote loser, even for Republican candidates.


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