The U.K.’s Fight Against the Covid Pandemic Has Divided a Nation – The New York Times
The war isn’t over. Pictures from the frontline.
(tags: covid19 pandemic nhs medicine UK)
siderea | The Very Bad News [curr ev, Patreon]
Siderea on the shock of the pandemic actually affecting you personally (and why Lefties shouldn’t disparage preppers). “The Great Shock was a wake up call. I suggest you don’t go back to sleep. I suggest that if you were caught by the Great Shock, you realize that that was because you were out of sync with reality, in a profound and dangerous way. I suggest you resolve not to be caught flat-footed like that again.”
(tags: pandemic preppers psychology)

Reasons for the COVID tier decisions in England
A presentation from NHS Test and Trace which David Spiegelhalter found.
(tags: disease pandemic covid19 nhs)
Balancing Epistemic Humility and Prior Knowledge – Insight
“This was a textbook virus. Why didn’t we act more like it?”
(tags: covid19 disease pandemic)
Chris Hopson on Twitter: “1/21 Parliament votes on the new tiered restctions on Tuesday. A lot of comment in today’s papers on what’s happening in the hospital sector. Important questions on NHS capacity, demand, preparedness, Nightingales etc. Thread
CEO of NHS Providers: “A lot of comment in today’s papers on what’s happening in the hospital sector. Important questions on NHS capacity, demand, preparedness, Nightingales etc. Thread below sets out NHS hospital trust perspective.”
(tags: covid19 nhs hospital pandemic)

Expert reaction to unpublished paper modelling what percentage of the UK population may have been exposed to COVID-19 | Science Media Centre
It’s an interesting paper but consensus seems to be that it’s not a good reason to give up lockdown (it’s ancient history from back in March now, but some discussion going on on UnHerd after they interviewed one of the researchers).
(tags: covid19 model mathematics)
James Hay on Twitter: “A recent analysis from Oxford presented a range of model scenarios consistent with observed COVID death counts. I’m going to reproduce their analysis here and then present some slight modifications to provide a conservative (if te
A good thread on what that Oxford team did.
(tags: covid19 model mathematics bayesian)
Staying alive: background tracing the NHS COVID-19 app – Reincubate
How’s the NHSX contact tracing app going to stay alive in the background on IOS? How does it work?
(tags: nhs health covid19 app nhsx android ios Bluetooth)
Knight Rider for 8 cellos – YouTube
(tags: tv music knight-rider)
Do any Covid-19 ‘cures’ actually work? – UnHerd
All studies so far flawed, including the flaw of eliminating dead people from the stufy. Tom Chivers continues to be one of the few worthwhile things on UnHinged.
(tags: covid19 science drugs tom-chivers)

Imaginary Positions – Less Wrong
One I’d missed: Yudkowsky’s post on rounding to the “nearest cliche”.
(tags: cliche nearest eliezer-yudkowsky rationality)
The world is not falling apart: The trend lines reveal an increasingly peaceful period in history.
Steven Pinker argues we should look at trend lines rather than headlines.
(tags: statistics war politics violence world steven-pinker)
A Pasta Sea: Elijah and the Apologist of Baal
1 Kings 18 re-imagined as if Baal had a William Lane Craig on his side. Fun times. “A Pasta Sea” is a good name for an ex-Christian blog, too.
(tags: bible apologetics ahab baal elijah funny parody)
A&E in crisis: a special report – Telegraph
“As the NHS faces its worst winter in years, Robert Colvile provides an in-depth, first-hand account of the pressures facing the health service.” Interesting: combination of people unable to see a GP quickly enough and hospitals unable to turf old people to social care quickly enough. Targets sometimes provide perverse incentives.
(tags: nhs health healthcare medicine hospital)
Free exchange: Nice work if you can get out | The Economist
Why the rich now have less leisure than the poor. Via WMC on FB.
(tags: leisure work economist)